“When Intuition is Not Enough: Strategy in the Age of Volatility”, Center for Business Innovation, January 2003.

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have long relied on their intuition to make strategic decisions in complex circumstances, but in today’s competitive landscape, your gut is no longer a good enough guide. The pace and scale of change, the speed and diffusion of innovation, and the volatility of financial markets are all increasing, while globalization is making an already dense web of business connectivity even denser. The results are unexpected phenomena and seemingly unpredictable collective events–ranging from fads to the sudden collapse of entire industries to stock market bubbles and bursts– that are emerging more frequently to disrupt the operating environment. Intuition, the ability to use your experience and history to discern patterns where other people may see nothing, is not only unlikely to help, it is often misleading. Human intuition, which arguably has been shaped by biological evolution to deal with the environment of hunters and gatherers, is showing its limits in a world whose dynamics are getting more complex by the minute.


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