Understand the Influence of Strategic Communications


Challenge
The success of Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) missions requires an understanding of how strategic communications combine with other initiatives (e.g., infrastructure development, humanitarian aid) to lead to specific outcomes.

Approach
Icosystem used our commercially derived agent-based modeling that simulates the effects of different communication strategies and interventions on citizens’ awareness, perceptions, and allegiances. The model describes the behavior of individuals and their interactions without the need to define general laws about a population. The overall behavior of a population emerges in a complex way from interactions among individuals and between individuals and their environment. Statistical analyses assume that “tomorrow will be the same as yesterday.” In contrast, agent-based modeling uncovers causal relationships that are not linked to a specific snapshot in time.

Outcome
CRIMSON can be used to test almost any kind of “scenario” by modifying parameters such as:

  • Timing, cost, duration, channel, and target of strategic communications
  • Timing, nature, cost and location of infrastructure projects and other types interventions
  • Population segmentation including geographic, religious, ethnic, demographic, economic and historic characteristics
  • Strategic planning to include behavior and tactics of various actors: political factions, religious sects, local government.

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