Accurately Forecast Personnel Staffing


To maintain a reserve force with the proper level of training and expertise, Navy personnel planners must accurately forecast overmanning, undermanning, and other risks to guide accessions, promotions, training, and personnel policy. Personnel inventory is influenced by a complex interaction of external factors (e.g., local and national economic conditions, civilian/government compensation differences) and internal ones (e.g., advancement policy, participation requirements, bonus offerings), making it very difficult to forecast changes using traditional statistical approaches.


Icosystem built an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates policy and behaviors at the level of individual Officers and Enlisted sailors. Icosystem’s simulation, IMPACT, captures real-time policies and procedures (e.g., force shaping, recruitment, promotion/advancement planning, attrition, who to promote and when) from Navy documentation and interviews with subject matter experts. Icosystem’s simulation engine connects to live personnel data sources, allowing the model to have the most up-to-date information possible. IMPACT integrates the simulation software into the Navy Manpower Programming and Budget System (NMPBS), providing single-sign-on convenience and powering full-scale simulations using actual, up-to-date sailor profiles and transactions.


IMPACT harnesses the Navy’s comprehensive data and research on manpower and personnel into a powerful tool that gives planners the forecasting tools they need to overcome challenges and ensure Navy readiness. The model more tightly integrates the user experience into the day-to-day workflows of strength planners and community managers. Modeling sailor leave/stay decision-making incorporates recent accession and retention research, capturing more nuanced influences of bonuses, retirement policy, job satisfaction, and economic conditions.


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