Challenge
To maintain a reserve force with the proper level of training and expertise, personnel planners must accurately forecast overmanning, undermanning, and other risks to guide accessions, promotions, training, and personnel policy. Personnel inventory is influenced by a complex interaction of external factors (e.g., local and national economic conditions, civilian/government compensation differences) and internal ones (e.g., advancement policy, participation requirements, bonus offerings), making it very difficult to forecast changes using traditional statistical approaches.

Approach
Icosystem built an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates policy and behaviors at the level of individual Officers and Enlisted sailors. Icosystem’s model, IMPACT-RES, captures real-time policies and procedures (e.g., force shaping, recruitment, promotion/advancement planning, attrition, who to promote and when) from Navy documentation and interviews with subject matter experts. Icosystem’s simulation engine connects to live personnel data sources, allowing the model to have the most up-to-date information possible. The current version of IMPACT-RES integrates the simulation software into the Navy Manpower Programming and Budget System (NMPBS), providing single-sign-on convenience and powering full-scale simulations using actual, up-to-date sailor profiles and transactions.

Outcome
IMPACT-RES harnesses the Navy’s comprehensive data and research on manpower and personnel into a powerful tool that gives planners the forecasting tools they need to overcome challenges and ensure Navy readiness. The model will more tightly integrate the IMPACT-RES user experience into the day-to-day workflows of strength planners and community managers. Modeling of sailor leave/stay decision making will be enhanced to incorporate recent accession and retention research, capturing more nuanced influences of bonuses, retirement policy, job satisfaction, and economic conditions. Modeling the Active Component personnel will further inform simulation of the close relationship between Active and Reserve components in IMPACT-RES.